Understanding and overcoming obstacles in adaptive management.

Adaptive management (AM) is widely promoted to improve management of natural resources, yet its implementation is challenging. We show that obstacles to the implementation of AM are related not only to the AM process per se but also to external factors such as ecosystem properties and governance systems. To overcome obstacles, there is a need to build capacities within the AM process by ensuring adequate resources, management tools, collaboration, and learning. Additionally, building capacities in the legal and institutional frames can enable the necessary flexibility in the governance system. Furthermore, in systems experiencing profound changes in wildlife populations, building such capacities may be even more critical as more flexibility will be needed to cope with increased uncertainty and changed environmental conditions.

Achieving international biodiversity targets: Learning from local norms, values and actions regarding migratory waterfowl management in Kazakhstan.

Migratory species are protected under international legislation; their seasonal movements across international borders may therefore present opportunities for understanding how global conservation policies translate to local-level actions across different socio-ecological contexts. Moreover, local-level management of migratory species can reveal how culture and governance affects progress towards achieving global targets. Here, we investigate potential misalignment in the two-way relationship between global-level conservation policies (i.e. hunting bans and quotas) and local-level norms, values and actions (i.e. legal and illegal hunting) in the context of waterfowl hunting in northern Kazakhstan as a case-study.Northern Kazakhstan is globally important for waterfowl and a key staging area for arctic-breeding species. Hunting is managed through licences, quotas and seasonal bans under UN-AEWA intergovernmental agreements. To better understand the local socio-ecological context of waterfowl hunting, we take a mixed-methods approach using socio-ecological surveys, informal discussions and population modelling of a focal migratory goose species to: (a) investigate motivations for hunting in relation to socio-economic factors; (b) assess knowledge of species' protection status; and (c) predict the population size of Lesser White-fronted Geese (LWfG; Anser erythropus; IUCN Vulnerable) under different scenarios of survival rates and hunting offtake, to understand how goose population demographics interact with the local socio-ecological context.Model results showed no evidence that waterfowl hunting is motivated by financial gain; social and cultural importance were stronger factors. The majority of hunters are knowledgeable about species' protection status; however, 11% did not know LWfG are protected, highlighting a key area for increased stakeholder engagement.Simulations of LWfG population growth over a 20-year period showed LWfG are highly vulnerable to hunting pressure even when survival rates are high. This potential impact of hunting highlights the need for effective regulation along the entire flyway; our survey results show that hunters were generally compliant with newly introduced hunting regulations, showing that effective regulation is possible on a local level. Synthesis and applications. Here, we investigate how global conservation policy and local norms interact to affect the management of a threatened migratory species, which is particularly important for the protection and sustainable management of wildlife that crosses international borders where local contexts may differ. Our study highlights that to be effective and sustainable in the long-term, global conservation policies must fully integrate local socio-economic, cultural, governance and environmental contexts, to ensure interventions are equitable across entire species' ranges. This approach is relevant and adaptable for different contexts involving the conservation of wide-ranging and migratory species, including the 255 migratory waterfowl covered by UN-AEWA (United Nations Agreement on the Conservation of African-Eurasian Migratory Waterbirds).

Quantifying the checks and balances of collaborative governance systems for adaptive carnivore management.

Recovering or threatened carnivore populations are often harvested to minimise their impact on human activities, such as livestock farming or game hunting. Increasingly, harvest quota decisions involve a set of scientific, administrative and political institutions operating at national and sub-national levels whose interactions and collective decision-making aim to increase the legitimacy of management and ensure population targets are met. In practice, however, assessments of how quota decisions change between these different actors and what consequences these changes have on population trends are rare.We combine a state-space population modelling approach with an analysis of quota decisions taken at both regional and national levels between 2007 and 2018 to build a set of decision-making models that together predict annual harvest quota values for Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) in Norway.We reveal a tendency for administrative decision-makers to compensate for consistent quota increases by political actors, particularly when the lynx population size estimate is above the regional target. Using population forecasts based on the ensemble of decision-making models, we show that such buffering of political biases ensures lynx population size remains close to regional and national targets in the long term.Our results go beyond the usual qualitative assessment of collaborative governance systems for carnivore management, revealing a system of checks and balances that, in the case of lynx in Norway, ensures both multi-stakeholder participation and sustainable harvest quotas. Nevertheless, we highlight important inter-regional differences in decision-making and population forecasts, the socio-ecological drivers of which need to be better understood to prevent future population declines. Synthesis and applications. Our work analyses the sequence of decisions leading to yearly quotas for lynx harvest in Norway, highlighting the collaborative and structural processes that together shape harvest sustainability. In doing so, we provide a predictive framework to evaluate participatory decision-making processes in wildlife management, paving the way for scientists and decision-makers to collaborate more widely in identifying where decision biases might lie and how institutional arrangements can be optimised to minimise them. We emphasise, however, that this is only possible if wildlife management decisions are documented and transparent.

Leapfrog migration and residents: New migratory habits in Swedish Greylag geese.

Knowledge about intraspecific and individual variation in bird migration behavior is important to predict spatiotemporal distribution, patterns of phenology, breeding success, and interactions with the surrounding environment (e.g., human livelihoods). Such variation is key to adaptive, evolutionary responses, i.e., how individuals respond spatiotemporally to the environment to maximize fitness. In this study we used GPS location data from one to three full annual cycles from 76 Greylag geese (Anser anser) to test the hypothesis that geese originating at five latitudinally separated capture sites in Sweden have different migration strategies. We also assessed individual consistency in movement strategy over consecutive annual cycles. We used the scale-independent net squared displacement modeling framework to quantify variables of autumn and spring migration for geese from each capture site: distance, timing, and duration. Our results demonstrate a positive correlation between migration distance and latitudinal origin. Geese from the northernmost site on average migrated farther south and about 15 times as far as the short-moving or resident geese from the two southernmost sites. Movement strategies of individual geese varied considerably both within and among capture sites. Individual consistency in movement strategy from one annual cycle to the consecutive was high in geese from the northern sites moving the farthest, whereas the resident or short-moving geese from the southernmost sites generally showed lower or no individual consistency. These changes have come about during a time span so short (i.e., ca. 35 years or 8-10 generations) that it can unlikely be explained by classical Darwinian between-generation adaptation. Consequently, and given that young geese follow their parents during their first migration, we presume an important role of within-family, inter-generation change as a driver behind the large-scale changed migration habits in Swedish Greylag geese.

Measuring the intensity of conflicts in conservation.

Conflicts between the interests of biodiversity conservation and other human activities pose a major threat to natural ecosystems and human well-being, yet few methods exist to quantify their intensity and model their dynamics. We develop a categorization of conflict intensity based on the curve of conflict, a model originally used to track the escalation and deescalation of armed conflicts. Our categorization assigns six intensity levels reflecting the discourse and actions of stakeholders involved in a given conflict, from coexistence or collaboration to physical violence. Using a range of case studies, we demonstrate the value of our approach in quantifying conflict trends, estimating transition probabilities between conflict stages, and modeling conflict intensity as a function of relevant covariates. By taking an evidence-based approach to quantifying stakeholder behavior, the proposed framework allows for a better understanding of the drivers of conservation conflict development across a diverse range of socioecological scenarios.

The role of risk perception and affect in predicting support for conservation policy under rapid ecosystem change.

Conservation conflicts are damaging for humans and wildlife, with differences in people's objectives fuelling challenges of managing complex, dynamic systems. We investigate the relative importance of economic, psychological (affect, trust and risk perception) and ecological factors in determining farmers' management preferences, using Greenland barnacle geese (Branta leucopsis) on Islay, Scotland, as a case study. Barnacle geese reduce agricultural productivity on Islay, negatively impacting household economies. Since 1992, farmers have received partial compensation but a new culling scheme has escalated conflict between conservation and agricultural interests. Using a questionnaire, we collected data from 75% of the farmers receiving goose payments. We found that affect was a strong driver of both risk perception and management preferences. However, we revealed complexity in these relationships, with trust and economic factors also influencing decision-making. Psychological and economic factors surrounding wildlife management must be understood if we are to achieve conservation objectives in human dominated landscapes.

A multispecies assessment of wildlife impacts on local community livelihoods.

Conflicts between the interests of agriculture and wildlife conservation are a major threat to biodiversity and human well-being globally. Addressing such conflicts requires a thorough understanding of the impacts associated with living alongside protected wildlife. Despite this, most studies reporting on human-wildlife impacts and the strategies used to mitigate them focus on a single species, thus oversimplifying often complex systems of human-wildlife interactions. We sought to characterize the spatiotemporal patterns of impacts by multiple co-occurring species on agricultural livelihoods in the eastern Okavango Delta Panhandle in northern Botswana through the use of a database of 3264 wildlife-incident reports recorded from 2009 to 2015 by the Department of Wildlife and National Parks. Eight species (African elephants [Loxodonta africana], hippopotamuses [Hippopotamus amphibious], lions [Panthera leo], cheetah [Acinonyx jubatus], African wild dogs [Lycaon pictus], hyenas [Crocuta crocuta], leopards [Panthera pardus], and crocodiles [Crocodylus niloticus]) appeared on incident reports, of which 56.5% were attributed to elephants. Most species were associated with only 1 type of damage (i.e., either crop damage or livestock loss). Carnivores were primarily implicated in incident reports related to livestock loss, particularly toward the end of the dry season (May-October). In contrast, herbivores were associated with crop-loss incidents during the wet season (November-April). Our results illustrate how local communities can face distinct livelihood challenges from different species at different times of the year. Such a multispecies assessment has important implications for the design of conservation interventions aimed at addressing the costs of living with wildlife and thereby mitigation of the underlying conservation conflict. Our spatiotemporal, multispecies approach is widely applicable to other regions where sustainable and long-term solutions to conservation conflicts are needed for local communities and biodiversity.

Article Impact Statement: Impacts of protected wildlife on local community livelihoods can vary and overlap across species, spatial scales, and time of the year. Una Evaluación Multiespecie de los Impactos de la Fauna sobre el Sustento de la Comunidad Local Resumen Los conflictos entre los intereses de la agricultura y la conservación de fauna son una gran amenaza para la biodiversidad y el bienestar humano en todo el mundo. Para tratar estos conflictos se requiere un entendimiento exhaustivo de los impactos asociados con la convivencia con fauna protegida. A pesar de esto, la mayoría de los estudios que reportan sobre los impactos humano-fauna y las estrategias que se usan para mitigarlos se enfocan en una sola especie, lo que simplifica demasiado los complejos sistemas de interacciones humano-fauna. Buscamos caracterizar los patrones espaciotemporales de los impactos por múltiples especies coocurrentes sobre el sustento agrícola en la franja oriental del Delta del Okavango al norte de Botswana mediante el uso de una base de datos de 3,264 reportes de incidentes con fauna registrados entre 2009 y 2015 por el Departamento de Vida Silvestre y Parques Nacionales. Ocho especies (elefante africano [Loxodonta africana], hipopótamo [Hippopotamus amphibious], león [Panthera leo], chita [Acinonyx jubatus], licaón [Lycaon pictus], hiena [Crocuta crocuta], leopardo [Panthera pardus] y cocodrilo [Crocodylus niloticus]) aparecieron en los reportes de incidentes, de los cuales el 56.5% estaba atribuido a los elefantes. La mayoría de las especies estuvo asociada sólo con un tipo de daño (es decir, daño a cultivos o pérdida de ganado). Los carnívoros fueron los principales implicados en los reportes de incidentes relacionados con la pérdida de ganado, particularmente hacia el final de la temporada seca (mayo-octubre). Al contrario, los herbívoros estuvieron asociados con los incidentes de pérdida de cultivos durante la temporada de lluvias (noviembre-abril). Nuestros resultados ejemplifican cómo las comunidades locales pueden enfrentar diferentes dificultades en su sustento por parte de diferentes especies durante diferentes periodos en el año. Tal evaluación multiespecie tiene consecuencias importantes para el diseño de las intervenciones de conservación enfocadas en la resolución de los efectos de la convivencia con la fauna y por lo tanto la mitigación del conflicto de conservación subyacente. Nuestro enfoque multiespecie espaciotemporal puede aplicarse ampliamente a otras regiones en donde las comunidades y la biodiversidad local necesitan soluciones sustentables y a largo plazo para los conflictos de conservación.

Long-term collapse in fruit availability threatens Central African forest megafauna.

Afrotropical forests host much of the world's remaining megafauna, although these animals are confined to areas where direct human influences are low. We used a rare long-term dataset of tree reproduction and a photographic database of forest elephants to assess food availability and body condition of an emblematic megafauna species at Lopé National Park, Gabon. Our analysis reveals an 81% decline in fruiting over a 32-year period (1986-2018) and an 11% decline in body condition of fruit-dependent forest elephants from 2008 to 2018. Fruit famine in one of the last strongholds for African forest elephants should raise concern about the ability of this species and other fruit-dependent megafauna to persist in the long term, with potential consequences for broader ecosystem and biosphere functioning.

Rare ground data confirm significant warming and drying in western equatorial Africa.

BACKGROUND: The humid tropical forests of Central Africa influence weather worldwide and play a major role in the global carbon cycle. However, they are also an ecological anomaly, with evergreen forests dominating the western equatorial region despite less than 2,000 mm total annual rainfall. Meteorological data for Central Africa are notoriously sparse and incomplete and there are substantial issues with satellite-derived data because of persistent cloudiness and inability to ground-truth estimates. Long-term climate observations are urgently needed to verify regional climate and vegetation models, shed light on the mechanisms that drive climatic variability and assess the viability of evergreen forests under future climate scenarios. METHODS: We have the rare opportunity to analyse a 34 year dataset of rainfall and temperature (and shorter periods of absolute humidity, wind speed, solar radiation and aerosol optical depth) from Lopé National Park, a long-term ecological research site in Gabon, western equatorial Africa. We used (generalized) linear mixed models and spectral analyses to assess seasonal and inter-annual variation, long-term trends and oceanic influences on local weather patterns. RESULTS: Lopé's weather is characterised by a cool, light-deficient, long dry season. Long-term climatic means have changed significantly over the last 34 years, with warming occurring at a rate of +0.25 °C per decade (minimum daily temperature) and drying at a rate of -75 mm per decade (total annual rainfall). Inter-annual climatic variability at Lopé is highly influenced by global weather patterns. Sea surface temperatures of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans have strong coherence with Lopé temperature and rainfall on multi-annual scales. CONCLUSIONS: The Lopé long-term weather record has not previously been made public and is of high value in such a data poor region. Our results support regional analyses of climatic seasonality, long-term warming and the influences of the oceans on temperature and rainfall variability. However, warming has occurred more rapidly than the regional products suggest and while there remains much uncertainty in the wider region, rainfall has declined over the last three decades at Lopé. The association between rainfall and the Atlantic cold tongue at Lopé lends some support for the 'dry' models of climate change for the region. In the context of a rapidly warming and drying climate, urgent research is needed into the sensitivity of dry season clouds to ocean temperatures and the viability of humid evergreen forests in this dry region should the clouds disappear.

Predicting intervention priorities for wildlife conflicts.

There is growing interest in developing effective interventions to manage socially and environmentally damaging conservation conflicts. There are a variety of intervention strategies that can be applied in various contexts, but the reasons one type of intervention is chosen over another remain underexplored. We surveyed conservation researchers and practitioners (n = 427) to explore how characteristics of conflicts and characteristics of decision makers influence recommendations to alleviate conservation conflict. Using a full-factorial design, we experimentally manipulated 3 aspects of the descriptions of 8 different wildlife-conflict scenarios (development status of the conflict country, conflict framing, and legality of killing wild animals) and recorded which of 5 intervention types (wildlife impact reduction, awareness, enforcement, economic incentives, or stakeholder engagement) respondents prioritized. We also recorded information on respondents' demographic and disciplinary backgrounds. Stakeholder-based interventions were recommended most often in the survey and in written feedback. However, when we fitted multinomial mixed logit models with fully completed scenario responses (n = 411), recommendations were influenced by small changes in the details of conflict and differed according to respondent characteristics. Enforcement and awareness interventions were prioritized relatively more for conflicts in more highly developed nations and by respondents with more natural science backgrounds and relatively less experience with conflict. Contrastingly, economic interventions were prioritized more when wildlife killing was described as illegal. Age, gender, and development status of the respondent's home country also predicted some intervention decisions. Further, interrogating the influences shaping conservation decision making will further helps in the development of evidence-informed interventions.

Predicción de Prioridades de Intervención para Conflictos de Vida Silvestre Resumen Existe un creciente interés en desarrollar intervenciones efectivas para gestionar conflictos de conservación social y ambientalmente dañinos. Hay una variedad de estrategias de intervención que pueden ser aplicadas en diversos contextos, pero las razones por las que se selecciona un tipo de estrategia han sido poco exploradas. Encuestamos a investigadores y a profesionales de la conservación (n = 427) para explorar cómo influyen las características tanto de los conflictos como de los tomadores de decisiones en las recomendaciones para mitigar conflictos de conservación. Mediante un diseño factorial completo, manipulamos experimentalmente 3 aspectos de las descripciones de 8 escenarios de conflictos de vida silvestre diferentes (nivel de desarrollo del país en conflicto, encuadre del conflicto y legalidad de la matanza de animales silvestres) y registramos la priorización de 5 tipos de intervención (disminución del impacto de la vida silvestre, sensibilización, cumplimiento, incentivos económicos o participación de las partes interesadas) por los encuestados. También registramos información sobre los antecedentes demográficos y disciplinares de los encuestados. Las intervenciones basadas en las partes interesadas fueron recomendadas con mayor frecuencia en las encuestas y en la retroalimentación escrita. Sin embargo, cuando ajustamos los modelos logit mixtos multinomiales con repuestas de escenarios completos (n = 411), las recomendaciones se vieron influenciadas por pequeños cambios en los detalles del conflicto y diferían según las características de los encuestados. Las intervenciones de cumplimiento y sensibilización fueron relativamente más priorizadas para conflictos en naciones altamente desarrolladas y por encuestados con formación en ciencias naturales y relativamente menos experiencia con conflictos. En contraste, las intervenciones económicas fueron más priorizadas cuando la matanza de vida silvestre era descrita como ilegal. La edad, el género y nivel de desarrollo del país de origen del encuestado también predijeron algunas decisiones de intervención. Una mayor profundización en las influencias que configuran la toma de decisiones en conservación promoverá el desarrollo de intervenciones basadas en evidencias.

Fluctuating asymmetry and feather growth bars as biomarkers to assess the habitat quality of shade coffee farming for avian diversity conservation.

Shade coffee farming has been promoted as a means of combining sustainable coffee production and biodiversity conservation. Supporting this idea, similar levels of diversity and abundance of birds have been found in shade coffee and natural forests. However, diversity and abundance are not always good indicators of habitat quality because there may be a lag before population effects are observed following habitat conversion. Therefore, other indicators of habitat quality should be tested. In this paper, we investigate the use of two biomarkers: fluctuating asymmetry (FA) of tarsus length and rectrix mass, and feather growth bars (average growth bar width) to characterize the habitat quality of shade coffee and natural forests. We predicted higher FA and narrower feather growth bars in shade coffee forest versus natural forest, indicating higher quality in the latter. We measured and compared FA in tarsus length and rectrix mass and average growth bar width in more than 200 individuals of five bird species. The extent of FA in both tarsus length and rectrix mass was not different between the two forest types in any of the five species. Similarly, we found no difference in feather growth between shade coffee and natural forests for any species. Therefore, we conclude our comparison of biomarkers suggests that shade coffee farms and natural forests provide similar habitat quality for the five species we examined.

Time series analysis reveals synchrony and asynchrony between conflict management effort and increasing large grazing bird populations in northern Europe.

The management of conflicts between wildlife conservation and agricultural practices often involves the implementation of strategies aimed at reducing the cost of wildlife impacts on crops. Vital to the success of these strategies is the perception that changes in management efforts are synchronized relative to changes in impact levels, yet this expectation is never evaluated. We assess the level of synchrony between time series of population counts and management effort in the context of conflicts between agriculture and five populations of large grazing birds in northern Europe. We reveal inconsistent patterns of synchrony and asynchrony between changes in population counts and impact management effort relating to population harvesting, monetary payments, or scaring practices. This variation is likely due to differing management aims, the existence of lags between management decisions and population monitoring, and the inconsistent use of predictive models across case studies. Overall, our findings highlight the need for more adaptive and timely responses of management to changes in target species numbers so as not to unexpectedly increase social conflicts and jeopardize the status of wildlife populations.

Improving cost-efficiency of faecal genotyping: New tools for elephant species.

Despite the critical need for non-invasive tools to improve monitoring of wildlife populations, especially for endangered and elusive species, faecal genetic sampling has not been adopted as regular practice, largely because of the associated technical challenges and cost. Substantial work needs to be undertaken to refine sample collection and preparation methods in order to improve sample set quality and provide cost-efficient tools that can effectively support wildlife management. In this study, we collected an extensive set of forest elephant (Loxodonta cyclotis) faecal samples throughout Gabon, Central Africa, and prepared them for genotyping using 107 single-nucleotide polymorphism assays. We developed a new quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay targeting a 130-bp nuclear DNA fragment and demonstrated its suitability for degraded samples in all three elephant species. Using this assay to compare the efficacy of two sampling methods for faecal DNA recovery, we found that sampling the whole surface of a dung pile with a swab stored in a small tube of lysis buffer was a convenient method producing high extraction success and DNA yield. We modelled the influence of faecal quality and storage time on DNA concentration in order to provide recommendations for optimized collection and storage. The maximum storage time to ensure 75% success was two months for samples collected within 24 hours after defecation and extended to four months for samples collected within one hour. Lastly, the real-time quantitative PCR assay allowed us to predict genotyping success and pre-screen DNA samples, thus further increasing the cost-efficiency of our approach. We recommend combining the validation of an efficient sampling method, the build of in-country DNA extraction capacity for reduced storage time and the development of species-specific quantitative PCR assays in order to increase the cost-efficiency of routine non-invasive DNA analyses and expand the use of next-generation markers to non-invasive samples.

Quantifying stakeholder understanding of an ecosystem service trade-off.

Sustainable management of global natural resources is challenged by social and environmental drivers, adding pressure to ecosystem service provision in many regions of the world where there are competing demands on environmental resources. Understanding trade-offs between ecosystem services and how they are valued by different stakeholder groups is therefore critical to maximise benefits and avoid conflict between competing uses. In this study we developed a novel participatory trade-off experiment to elicit the perception of 43 participants, from across four key stakeholder groups, working in land and water management (Environmental Regulators, Farming Advisors, Water Industry Staff and Catchment Scientists). Using the Production Possibility Frontier (PPF) concept, we quantified stakeholder assessment of both the shape and the uncertainty around the PPF in a trade-off between agricultural intensity and the ecological health of freshwater systems. The majority of stakeholder groups selected threshold and logistic decay trade-off curves to describe the relationship of the trade-off, and estimated the uncertainty around the curves to be intermediate or large. The views of the four stakeholder groups differed significantly regarding how they estimated stakeholder trade-off prioritisation; the largest difference in perspectives was identified between Environmental Regulators and Farm Advisors. The methodology considered the cultural, socio-economic and institutional specificities of an ecosystem service interaction and identified potential sources of conflict but also possible solutions for win-win opportunities to explore and share understanding between stakeholders. Valuing stakeholder knowledge as a form of expert data and integrating this into participatory decision-making processes for land and water management thus contributes considerable value beyond traditional approaches to ecosystem service assessments.

Games as Tools to Address Conservation Conflicts.

Conservation conflicts represent complex multilayered problems that are challenging to study. We explore the utility of theoretical, experimental, and constructivist approaches to games to help to understand and manage these challenges. We show how these approaches can help to develop theory, understand patterns in conflict, and highlight potentially effective management solutions. The choice of approach should be guided by the research question and by whether the focus is on testing hypotheses, predicting behaviour, or engaging stakeholders. Games provide an exciting opportunity to help to unravel the complexity in conflicts, while researchers need an awareness of the limitations and ethical constraints involved. Given the opportunities, this field will benefit from greater investment and development.

Single-nucleotide polymorphism discovery and panel characterization in the African forest elephant.

The continuing decline in forest elephant (Loxodonta cyclotis) numbers due to poaching and habitat reduction is driving the search for new tools to inform management and conservation. For dense rainforest species, basic ecological data on populations and threats can be challenging and expensive to collect, impeding conservation action in the field. As such, genetic monitoring is being increasingly implemented to complement or replace more burdensome field techniques. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are particularly cost-effective and informative markers that can be used for a range of practical applications, including population census, assessment of human impact on social and genetic structure, and investigation of the illegal wildlife trade. SNP resources for elephants are scarce, but next-generation sequencing provides the opportunity for rapid, inexpensive generation of SNP markers in nonmodel species. Here, we sourced forest elephant DNA from 23 samples collected from 10 locations within Gabon, Central Africa, and applied double-digest restriction-site-associated DNA (ddRAD) sequencing to discover 31,851 tags containing SNPs that were reduced to a set of 1,365 high-quality candidate SNP markers. A subset of 115 candidate SNPs was then selected for assay design and validation using 56 additional samples. Genotyping resulted in a high conversion rate (93%) and a low per allele error rate (0.07%). This study provides the first panel of 107 validated SNP markers for forest elephants. This resource presents great potential for new genetic tools to produce reliable data and underpin a step-change in conservation policies for this elusive species.

Wicked conflict: Using wicked problem thinking for holistic management of conservation conflict.

Conservation conflict is widespread, damaging, and has proved difficult to manage using conventional conservation approaches. Conflicts are often "wicked problems," lacking clear solutions due to divergent values of stakeholders, and being embedded within wickedly complex environments. Drawing on the concept of wicked environmental problems could lead to management strategies better suited to tackling conflict. However, it is unclear whether managers are embracing ideas from the wicked problems concept. There is currently a lack of guidance for applying strategies to tackle particular wicked problems, such as conservation conflict. We explored the suitability of wicked problems-inspired management, using eight contemporary conflict case studies. Conservation conflict was managed predominantly using conventional approaches suited to tackling single objectives in simple environments, rather than balancing competing objectives in complex environments. To deal with different characteristics of wickedness, we recommend that managers develop strategies combining distributed decision-making, diverse opinions, pattern-based predictions, trade-off-based objectives, and reporting of failures. Recent advances in conservation conflict research have focused on improving interactions among stakeholders. We believe that such stakeholder-focused approaches would dovetail with the whole-system focus of a wicked problems framework, allowing conservationists to move toward a holistic strategy for managing conservation conflict.

Quantifying the expected value of uncertain management choices for over-abundant Greylag Geese.

In many parts of the world, conservation successes or global anthropogenic changes have led to increasing native species populations that then compete with human resource use. In the Orkney Islands, Scotland, a 60-fold increase in Greylag Goose Anser anser numbers over 24 years has led to agricultural damages and culling attempts that have failed to prevent population increase. To address uncertainty about why populations have increased, we combined empirical modelling of possible drivers of Greylag Goose population change with expert-elicited benefits of alternative management actions to identify whether to learn versus act immediately to reduce damages by geese. We built linear mixed-effects models relating annual goose densities on farms to land-use and environmental covariates and estimated AICc model weights to indicate relative support for six hypotheses of change. We elicited from experts the expected likelihood that one of six actions would achieve an objective of halting goose population growth, given each hypothesis for population change. Model weights and expected effects of actions were combined in Value of Information analysis (VoI) to quantify the utility of resolving uncertainty in each hypothesis through adaptive management and monitoring. The action with the highest expected value under existing uncertainty was to increase the extent of low quality habitats, whereas assuming equal hypothesis weights changed the best action to culling. VoI analysis showed that the value of learning to resolve uncertainty in any individual hypothesis for goose population change was low, due to high support for a single hypothesis of change. Our study demonstrates a two-step framework that learns about the most likely drivers of change for an over-abundant species, and uses this knowledge to weight the utility of alternative management actions. Our approach helps inform which strategies might best be implemented to resolve uncertainty when there are competing hypotheses for change and competing management choices.